Central Banking in an Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty

The rules-based international order that shaped modern central banking is fracturing. Does the standard monetary policy framework remain adequate — and what needs to change?

Modern central banking was built for a particular world. One defined by deepening trade integration, open capital markets, and a broadly stable international order. These were not just favorable background conditions. They shaped the models central banks use to forecast inflation, the assumptions embedded in their policy frameworks, and the transmission channels through which their decisions take effect.

That world is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, sanctions regimes, and the restructuring of global supply chains have moved from the margins to the center of the macroeconomic landscape. Central banks have navigated a sequence of major disruptions — and will likely face more. The question is whether these represent a new normal rather than a run of bad luck.

If geopolitical fragmentation is structural rather than episodic, the implications go beyond any individual shock. The forces shaping inflation may become harder to read. The international transmission of monetary policy may weaken or change character. The global financial safety net — swap lines, reserve adequacy, liquidity access — may come under strain precisely when it is most needed.

This workshop opens a new series by asking what this shift means in practice — for how central banks analyze their environment, communicate under uncertainty, and adapt their tools and frameworks to a more contested world.

Introductory remarks
Martin Kocher
Oesterreichische Nationalbank | Governor

Speakers
Falko Fecht
Deutsche Bundesbank | Head of the Research Centre

Boris Hofmann
Bank for International Settlements | Head of Monetary Policy

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (online)
Brown University | Brown University, Schreiber Family Professor of Economics

Moderation
Martin Feldkircher
Oesterreichische Nationalbank | Senior Economist
Vienna School of International Studies | Professor of International Economics