OeNB-Freitagsseminar with Francesco Zanetti

Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
 

Dear Ms. Roubinek,

We have the pleasure of inviting you to the OeNB-Freitagsseminar with Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford, which the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) will host on 6 December 2024.

Title
“Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty”

Abstract

When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents’ disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of agreed and disagreed uncertainty shocks, based on a novel measure of  consumer disagreement derived from survey expectations. Disagreed uncertainty has no discernible economic effects and is benign for economic activity, but agreed uncertainty exerts significant depressing effects on a broad spectrum of macroeconomic indicators.

Date
Friday, 6 December 2024 | Start: 11:00 AM | End: 12:30 PM             

Venue
The event is planned both, online via Webex and onsite at the Online via Webex,   

Conference language
English

Join us by registering by 4 December 2024, at the latest.

I cannot participate. 

Have your contact details changed? Or should we send an invitation to other interested experts? Please let us know by sending an e-mail to event-management@oenb.at.

We look forward to having you join us at the OeNB-Freitagsseminar with Francesco Zanetti.

Yours sincerely,
OeNB Event Management