Global Economy Lecture 2026

Abstract
The International Monetary System has always been evolving and adapting to a changing global economy. This lecture starts with a review of some of the key facts about the structure of the IMS and its evolution. A central finding is that the trade network is already multipolar even as the finance network remains unipolar, centered on the dominance of the US dollar and of the US Treasuries as the global safe asset. I then review classical theories of the stability or instability of the International Monetary System and find them unable to account for these evolutions. Instead, I argue that growing domestic imbalances -from the two leading countries, the US and China- and rising geoeconomic fragmentation represent the most serious threats to global stability. I conclude by exploring whether the international financial architecture could be strengthened through the provision of synthetic reserve assets.

Speaker
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Professor at UC Berkley | former Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund

Introduction
Martin Kocher
Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Chair
Robert Stehrer
Scientific Director
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is one of the world’s leading economists in international macroeconomics and finance. Formerly Chief Economist and Economic Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund (2022-2026), he is the S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global Management at the University of California, Berkeley, and a recognized authority on global growth, financial stability, capital flows, exchange rates, and the international monetary system.